Improving Financial Forecast Accuracy (Video) (Course Id 2682)

• Who is this course for?
  This course is designed for anyone needing Continuing Professional Education (CPE), particularly CPAs and financial professionals seeking to enhance their forecasting skills.

• What is this course about or what problem does this course solve?
  The course addresses the common problem of inaccurate financial forecasting by teaching strategies and tools to improve forecast reliability and support better business decisions.

• How can the knowledge from this course be used?
  Participants can apply variance analysis, statistical error calculations, and forecasting techniques to enhance the accuracy of financial models and adapt forecasts to changing business conditions.

• Why is this course important to a CPA, Accountant, or IRS Enrolled Agent?
  Improving forecast accuracy is critical for strategic decision-making and financial planning, making this course essential for professionals who rely on financial projections to guide client or organizational outcomes.

• When is this course relevant or timely?
  With the course released in 2025 and emphasizing adaptability through rolling forecasts, it is especially timely for professionals navigating today’s volatile economic environment.

• How is a course like this consumed or used?
  Delivered as a QAS Self Study video course, it includes review and final exam questions, and can be completed independently online without additional materials.

Transform your forecasting from a guessing game into a strategic advantage. Financial forecasting is the backbone of strategic decision-making. Poor forecasts, however, can lead to costly mistakes. This course highlights that while all forecasts are inherently imperfect, proactive steps can significantly enhance their reliability to improve business performance.
Key insights from the course include:

• Variance Analysis: Learn how to compare actual results to forecasts to identify discrepancies and refine future predictions.
• Root Cause Analysis: Dive deep into the "why" behind variances using systematic methods. Understand the drivers of revenue and costs to improve your business model and forecast accuracy.
• Common Forecasting Errors: Discover how model errors, design limitations, and human biases can derail forecasts. Learn actionable strategies to prevent and correct these issues.
• Rolling Forecasts: Adapt to a volatile business environment with rolling forecasts that continuously extend the forecast horizon. This approach ensures timeliness, relevance, and improved cash flow planning.
• Driver-Based Forecasting: Identify key drivers that impact financial outcomes. Use this efficient method to streamline forecasting and focus on the variables that matter most.
• Forecasting Ranges: Move beyond single-point forecasts to project a range of outcomes. Explore stochastic analysis to capture the full picture of future possibilities.

Learn how to use these practical tools and techniques:

• Graphing Forecast Bias: Detect patterns of overoptimism or sandbagging by visualizing forecasted vs. actual results.
• Variance Statistical Calculations: Use metrics like Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), and Weighted Average Percentage Error (WAPE) to measure forecast accuracy and adjust future predictions.
• Flexible Budgeting: Adjust budgets to actual volumes for more precise variance analysis and actionable insights.

By the end of this course, you will be equipped with practical tools and insights to not only improve the accuracy of your financial forecasts but also to make better and more agile business decisions.

Video - NASBA QAS - Text - NASBA Registry - 2682

Course Learning Objectives

• Recognize how variance analysis can improve forecast accuracy.
• Identify calculations of model error.
• Recall techniques to reduce forecast model error.

Chapter 1 - Improving Financial Forecast Accuracy

Chapter 1 Review Questions

Glossary