Financial Forecasting: Tools and Applications (Business Forecasting) - v12 (Course Id 1756)

Finance - Finance for Course Id 1756

Business and financial forecasting is of extreme importance to managers at practically all levels. It is required for top managers to make long-term strategic decisions. Middle management uses sales forecasts to develop their departmental budgets. Every other plan such as a production plan, purchasing plan, manpower plan, and financial plan follows from demand forecasting.  The critical element in any supply chain plan is the demand forecast.

The goal of this course is to provide a working knowledge of the fundamentals of business forecasting that can be applied in the real world regardless of firm size. We walk you through basic forecasting methodology, and then practical applications.  It encompasses a wide range of topics of major importance to practical managers in all functional areas, including cash flow forecasting, cost prediction, earnings forecasts, bankruptcy prediction, foreign exchange forecasting, interest rate forecasting, and technological forecasting. 

NASBA QAS - Text - NASBA Registry - 1756

Chapter 1
Forecasting and Managerial Planning

1. Identify various aspects of forecasting methods.

Chapter 2
Forecasting, Budgeting, and Business Valuation

1. Identify the important steps to budgeting.
2. Recognize the value of sensitivity analysis.
3. Identify factors in the computation of business valuation.

Chapter 3
Moving Averages and Smoothing Methods

1. Recognize the features of naive forecasting models.
2. Recognize smoothing techniques.

Chapter 4
Time Series Analysis, Classical Decomposition, and Forecasting with No Data

1. Identify the basic components of the time series data.
2. Recognize the steps to perform decomposition of time series.
3. Recognize life cycle stages for new products.

Chapter 5
Indirect Methods and Evaluating Forecasts

1. Identify assumptions use to forecast sales with the Markov model.
2. Understand the value of performing market surveys for forecasting.
3. Recognize methods of comparing a predicted forecast change with the observed change.
4. Identify how to measure and rank accuracy of forecasts.

Chapter 6
Sales and Revenue Forecasting, and Forecasting the Economy

1. Identify the value of a combination method of sales forecasting.
2. Recognize the use of different econometric models.
3. Identify some sources of economic data that can be used to improve forecasts.

Chapter 7
Financial Forecasting

1. Identify the steps in projecting financial needs for the firm.
2. Recognize the implication of earnings forecasts and the Sarbanes-Oxley Act requirements.
3. Identify different sources provided from security analysts for earnings projections.
4. Identify benefits and methods of forecasting the cash collection pattern.

Chapter 8
Cost Behavior, Cost Prediction , and Bankruptcy Prediction

1. Differentiate the costs found in a company.
2. Recognize different methods for estimating costs.
3. Identify bankruptcy prediction models and the limitations of some methodologies.

Chapter 9
Forecasting Foreign Exchange Rates

1. Recognize the reasons for managers to forecast the foreign exchange rates.

Chapter 10
Interest Rate and Technological Forecasting

1. Identify the different aspects of interest rate forecasts.
2. Identify characteristics and accuracy of technological forecasting.
3. Identify the trends that affect the future of forecasting.

Chapter 1:    Forecasting and Managerial Planning

Learning Objectives

Who Uses Forecasts?

Types of Forecasts

Forecasting Methods

The Qualitative Approach

Common Features and Assumptions Inherent in Forecasting

Steps in the Forecasting Process

Chapter 1 Review Questions

Chapter 2:    Forecasting, Budgeting, and Business Valuation

Learning Objectives

The Master Budget

Forecasting and Business Valuation

Conclusion

Chapter 2 Review Questions

Chapter 3:    Moving Averages and Smoothing Methods

Learning Objectives

Naive Models

Smoothing Techniques

Regression Analysis

Conclusion

Chapter 3 Review Questions

Chapter 4:    Time Series Analysis, Classical Decomposition, and Forecasting with No Data

Learning Objectives

Trend Analysis

Forecasting Using Decomposition of Time Series

Forecasting With No Data

Chapter 4 Review Questions

Chapter 5:    Indirect Methods and Evaluating Forecasts

Learning Objectives

Forecasting Sales with the Markov Model

Indirect methods

Evaluation of Forecasts

Chapter 5 Review Questions

Chapter 6:    Sales and Revenue Forecasting, and Forecasting the Economy

Learning Objectives

Dependent and Independent Demand

Purposes, Concepts, and Methods of Forecasts

Basic Forecasting Methods

Sales Forecasting: A Combined Process

Forecasting the Economy

Chapter 6 Review Questions

Chapter 7:    Financial Forecasting

Learning Objectives

The Percent-of-Sales Method for Financial Forecasting

The CPA’s Responsibility for Prospective Financial Statements

Earnings Forecast

Cash Flow Forecasting

Total cash receipts

Chapter 7 Review Questions

Chapter 8:    Cost Behavior,  Cost Prediction , and Bankruptcy Prediction

Learning Objectives

A Look at Costs by Behavior

Bankruptcy Prediction

Chapter 8 Review Questions

Chapter 9:    Forecasting Foreign Exchange Rates

Learning Objectives

Why Forecast Exchange Rates?

Some Basic Terms and Relationships

Forecasting Techniques

A Framework for Evaluating Forecasts

Conclusion

Chapter 9 Review Questions

Chapter 10:    Interest Rate and Technological Forecasting

Learning Objectives

Interest Rate Fundamentals

Statistical Methodology and a Sample Model

Technological Forecasting

Accuracy of Technological Forecasting

S-Curve as a Guide for Technology Forecasting

Methodology of Technological Forecasting

An Evaluation

Forecasting in the 21st Century

Conclusion

Chapter 10 Review Questions

Appendix

Glossary