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Course Details

Financial Forecasting: Tools and Applications (Business Forecasting) (Course Id 16)

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Author : Jae K. Shim, Ph.D., CPA
Status : Production
CPE Credits : 11.0
IRS Credits : 0
Price : $103.95
Passing Score : 70%
Primary Subject-Field Of Study:

Finance - Management for Course Id 16

Description :

Business and financial forecasting is of extreme importance to managers at practically all levels. It is required for top managers to make long-term strategic decisions. Middle management uses sales forecasts to develop their departmental budgets. Every other plan such as a production plan, purchasing plan, manpower plan, and financial plan follows from demand forecasting. The critical element in any supply chain plan is the demand forecast.
The goal of this course is to provide a working knowledge of the fundamentals of business forecasting that can be applied in the real world regardless of firm size. We walk you through basic forecasting methodology, and then practical applications. It encompasses a wide range of topics of major importance to practical managers in all functional areas, including cash flow forecasting, cost prediction, earnings forecasts, bankruptcy prediction, foreign exchange forecasting, interest rate forecasting, and technological forecasting. Stress is placed on the use of computer technology, i.e., spreadsheets and stand-alone forecasting software.

Usage Rank : 0
Release : 2012
Version : 1.0
Prerequisites : Basic accounting
Basic finance
Basic statistics
Experience Level : Overview
Additional Contents : Complete, no additional material needed.
Additional Links :
Advance Preparation : None.
Delivery Method : Self-Study
Intended Participants : Anyone needing Continuing Professional Education (CPE).
Revision Date : 17-Sep-2012
NASBA Course Declaration : Participants must complete the final examination within one year of purchase and with a minimum passing grade of 70% or better to receive CPE credit unless otherwise noted on the Course History page (i.e. California Ethics must score 90% or better). After logging in click on the Course History links on your My Courses page for the Begin date and Expire date for the Final Exam.
Approved Audience :

NASBA QAS - NASBA Registry - 16

Keywords : Finance, Financial, Forecasting, Tools, Applications, Business, Forecasting, cpe, cpa, online course
Learning Objectives :

Chapter 1
FORECASTING AND MANAGERIAL PLANNING

After completing this chapter, you should be able to:
    1. Discuss how a forecast relates to managerial planning.
    2. Identify who uses forecasts.
    3. Explain the types of forecasts.
    4. Discuss some special features of supply chain management forecasting.
    5. Compare various forecasting methods and discuss how to select the right method.
    6. Explain what is involved in the forecasting process.

Chapter 2
FORECASTING, BUDGETING, AND BUSINESS VALUATION

After completing this chapter, you should be able to:
    1. Define budgeting.
    2. Explain how important sales forecasts are to budgeting.
    3. Diagram and explain the master budget interrelationships.
    4. Follow the principal steps in preparing a master budget.
    5. Prepare sales, production, and other budgets.
    6. Prepare a budgeted income statement.
    7. Cite the reasons for preparing the budgeted balance sheet.
    8. Discuss how budgets aid in planning and control and how a computer-based approach may be used in the planning process.

Chapter 3
MOVING AVERAGES AND SMOOTHING METHODS

After completing this chapter, you should be able to:
    1. Outline the special features of naive forecasting models.
    2. Discuss how smoothing techniques work and state what circumstances they are most appropriate.
    3. Explain the difference between moving averages and exponential smoothing.
    4. Discuss why trend adjustment is necessary for exponential smoothing.

Chapter 4
REGRESSION ANALYSIS

After completing this chapter, you should be able to:
    1. Define regression analysis.
    2. Differentiate between simple regression and multiple regression.
    3. Explain how the least-squares method works.
    4. Demonstrate how to use a spreadsheet program such as Excel for regression analysis.
    5. Describe the meaning of various regression statistics.
    6. Illustrate the circumstances under which dummy variables and weights are used.

Chapter 5
MULTIPLE REGRESSION

After completing this chapter, you should be able to:
    1. Discuss multiple regression.
    2. Cite some examples of applications of multiple regression.
    3. Demonstrate how to use computer software such as MINITAB, SPSS, and EXCEL
    4. Explain statistics to look for multiple regression
    5. Discuss nonlinear regression.
    6. Explain how to use dummy variables.
    7. Cite the reason why one uses weighted (or discounted) regression.

Chapter 6
TIME SERIES ANALYSIS AND CLASSICAL DECOMPOSITION

After completing this chapter, you should be able to:
    1. Define the time series .
    2. Identify the four basic components of the time series data.
    3. Explain, step by step, how to perform decomposition of time series.
    4. Discuss time series analysis

Chapter 7
FORECASTING WITH NO DATA AND LONG RANGE FORECASTING

After completing this chapter, you should be able to:
    1. Explain why most quantitative forecasting models do not work for new products.
    2. Define the A-T-A-R concept.
    3. Use the A-T-A-R model to forecast sales and profit on a new item.
    4. List the types of long-range forecasts.
    5. Compare popular growth models.
    6. Discuss how to choose the right growth model.

Chapter 8
INDIRECT METHODS

After completing this chapter, you should be able to:
    1. Outline how to forecast sales with the Markov model.
    2. Identify the types of indirect methods.
    3. List the components that make up the Index of Leading Economic Indicators.
    4. Explain input-output analysis.
    5. Describe what is involved in market survey techniques.
    6. Discuss the benefits of econometric modeling.

Chapter 9
EVALUATION OF FORECASTS

After completing this chapter, you should be able to:
    1. Define the cost of a prediction error.
    2. Discuss the questions to be raised in connection with the data and the model.
    3. Demonstrate how to measure accuracy of forecasts.
    4. Explain the U statistic and turning point errors.
    5. Monitor forecast errors to insure that the forecast is performing well.

Chapter 10
WHAT IS THE RIGHT FORECASTING TOOL AND SOFTWARE FOR YOU?

After completing this chapter, you should be able to:
    1. Define the term the life cycle of a new product.
    2. Outline the four major stages.
    3. Discuss some major criteria by which the forecasting model and software are evaluated.

Chapter 11
SALES AND REVENUE FORECASTING

After completing this chapter, you should be able to:
    1. State how critical sales forecasting is to policy formation.
    2. Explain how economic forecasts, industry forecasts, and sales forecasts are interrelated.
    3. Describe why some people are skeptical about the entire business forecasting.
    4. Distinguish between short-term and long-term forecasts.
    5. Give the reason what sales forecasting is a combined process.

Chapter 12
FORECASTING THE ECONOMY

After completing this chapter, you should be able to:
    1. Define barometric forecasting.
    2. Explain the use of econometric models.
    3. Discuss how input-output analysis can be used for economic forecasting.
    4. Identify some sources of economic data
    5. List some useful Websites for economic data.

Chapter 13
FINANCIAL AND EARNINGS FORECASTING

After completing this chapter, you should be able to:
    1. Apply the percent-of-sales method to determine the amount of external financing needed
    2. Elaborate on the Certified Public Accountant's involvement and responsibility with prospective financial statements.
    3. Describe briefly the types of engagements performed by the CPA.
    4. Explain the implication of earnings forecasts.
    5. Summarize EPS forecast confusion.
    6. Compare security analysts vs. time-series models for earnings forecasting.

Chapter 14
CASH FLOW FORECASTING

After completing this chapter, you should be able to:
    1. Explain several methods of forecasting the cash collection pattern.
    2. Estimate future cash collections from accounts receivable.
    3. Establish an allowance for doubtful accounts.
    4. Discuss how to manage accounts receivable.
    5. Discuss how to find the right cash flow forecasting software available.

Chapter 15
ANALYSIS OF COST BEHAVIOR AND COST PREDICTION

After completing this chapter, you should be able to:
    1. Define and cite examples of variable costs, fixed costs, and mixed costs.
    2. Distinguish between committed and discretionary fixed costs.
    3. List the advantages and disadvantages of the high-low method for developing a cost-volume formula.
    4. Develop a formula using the high-low method.
    5. Develop a cost-volume formula using the least-squares method.

Chapter 16
BANKRUPTCY PREDICTIONS

After completing this chapter, you should be able to:
    1. Discuss how a bankruptcy prediction model is useful and where.
    2. Explain the Z-score model and how to classify the firm according to the model.
    3. Compare three popular prediction models.
    4. Build a spreadsheet model to see if your company is headed for financial trouble.

Chapter 17
FORECASTING FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES

After completing this chapter, you should be able to:
    1. Discuss the need for managers to forecast the foreign exchange rates.
    2. Explain the relationship between exchange rates, interest rate, and inflation rate.
    3. Compare the different types of forecasting techniques used to predict the foreign exchange rates.
    4. Distinguish between the fundamental and technical methods of forecasting exchange rates.

Chapter 18
INTEREST RATE FORECASTING

After completing this chapter, you should be able to:
    1. Define various types of interest rates
    2. Identify the factors that influence interest rates
    3. Describe popular forecasting methodology for interest rates

Chapter 19
TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING

After completing this chapter, you should be able to:
    1. Explain how technological changes affect businesses
    2. Discuss the accuracy of technological forecasting
    3. Define the S-curve
    4. List the types of forecasting models used for technological forecasting and briefly explain each

Chapter 20
FORECASTING IN THE 21ST CENTURY

After completing this chapter, you should be able to:
    1. Name some of the changes expected for forecasting in the new millennium.
    2. Identify how important what-if analysis is for policy formulation.
Course Contents :

Preface

 

PART I           INTRODUCTION

 

CHAPTER 1    FORECASTING AND MANAGERIAL PLANNING

CHAPTER 2    FORECASTING, BUDGETING, and Business valuation

 

PART II          FORECASTING METHODS

 

CHAPTER 3    MOVING AVERAGES AND SMOOTHING METHODS

CHAPTER 4    REGRESSION ANALYSIS

CHAPTER 5    MULTIPLE REGRESSION

CHAPTER 6    TIME SERIES ANALYSIS AND CLASSICAL DECOMPOSITION

CHAPTER 7    FORECASTING WITH NO DATA AND LONG RANGE FORECASTING

CHAPTER 8    indirect methods

CHAPTER 9    EVALUATION OF FORECASTS

CHAPTER 10  WHAT IS THE RIGHT FORECASTING TOOL AND SOFTWARE FOR YOU?

 

PART III         APPLICATIONS

 

Chapter 11   sales and revenue forecasting

Chapter 12   forecasting the economy

CHAPTER 13   FINANCIAL AND EARNINGS FORECASTING

CHAPTER 14  CASH FLOW FORECASTING

CHAPTER 15  ANALYSIS OF COST BEHAVIOR AND COST PREDICTION

CHAPTER 16  BANKRUPTCY PREDICTIONS

CHAPTER 17  FORECASTING FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES

Chapter 18  interest rate forecasting

Chapter 19  technological forecasting

chapter 20  forecasting in the 21st century

 

Appendix

 

Glossary

Finance Course 16 Home: https://www.cpethink.com/cpe-for-cpas
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